Model Performance, Live
The scoreboard.
We model on our own datasets in public so you can judge them before you buy. Every probability is stored beside the market's price and settled, hits and misses alike. Browse the data →
Every model we run
Four lanes, one rule: the score is published.
A backtest is not a live record. Each tile says which it has.
Reproduce it: /v1/markets/performance · /v1/nfl/performance · /v1/mlb/performance, free, no key.
Live head-to-head ledger
EVIO probability vs. market price
Settled venue contracts only, one final pre-close call per market, scored by the venue's own result. Brier: lower is better.
Methodology & honesty rules ▾
Whenever an EVIO model holds a probability for a live venue contract, the venue's public prices and our probability are snapshotted in the same row at the same instant.
After settlement the venue's own result is written back. Aggregates use the last pre-close capture per market, one final call per contract, misses included. Backtest tickets are flat 1 unit: spread and total at −110, moneyline at the actual quoted odds, so the vig is paid everywhere a real ticket would pay it.
The moneyline view exists to publish an uncomfortable number on purpose: our win probabilities have the same Brier on train and holdout to the third decimal, but the market's are sharper, so we sell them as pricing inputs and do not recommend moneyline picks.
Model research, not investment advice. Hypothetical results at captured public prices; EVIO places no orders and holds no customer funds. Event markets involve risk. Raw data: /v1/markets/performance · /v1/nfl/performance
How each model works
Methods are disclosed.
A prediction you cannot inspect is one you cannot price.
Weather
wx_sigma_v0- Prices
- Kalshi KXHIGH / KXLOW ladders, which settle on The Weather Company
- Method
- NWS grid mean, fitted sigma, per-degree pmf
- Depth
- 9 stations · 72,846 station-days
- Known gap
- In-day blend, sigma too wide
MLB
mlb_log5_v0- Prices
- Kalshi KXMLBGAME moneylines
- Method
- Pythagorean 1.83 → log5 → home edge → starter ERA
- Record
- 21,782 games · 6 seasons priced
- Known gap
- No bullpen, park or lineup model
Crypto
crypto_rv_v0- Prices
- Kalshi KXBTCD / KXETHD hourly ladders
- Method
- Zero-drift lognormal, realized vol of 120 one-minute closes
- Bounds
- Sigma floored 15%, capped 250%
- Status
- Scored hourly, 24 times a day per asset
NFL
nfl_v1- Prices
- Consensus closing lines · Kalshi KXNFLGAME
- Method
- Decayed EPA form, 8-game half-life, ridge + logistic
- Validation
- 570-game holdout, scored once
- Known gap
- Market is sharper: 10.15 vs 9.69 error